Economic recovery is about making people feel more confident, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com.

Zandi evidenced increasing home sales and gains in the stock market are some promising signs that the worst is over and people will start spending again.

“We’re starting to see some pent-up demand for goods,” he says.

But Zandi warns that the situation is still fragile. “Confidence is a very fickle thing. It can go from abject pessimism that pervades now to a more balanced view of the world rather quickly.”

Robert Brusca of FAO Economics is predicting strong growth in the last half of the year and a quick recovery for the labor market. “You’ve lost 5 million jobs. It shouldn’t be hard to put 2.5 million jobs back on rather quickly after you hit bottom,” he said.

Joseph Carson, chief economist at AllianceBernstein, calls improving home sales, a rising stock market, and better-than-expected retail sales in February and March good signs of a turnaround. By the time President Obama’s stimulus package takes effect, the economy will be ready, he says.

“The stimulus has a much better chance of working if trends are already turning up than if it needs to halt a decline,” he said.

Source: CNNMoney, Chris Isidore (04/06/2009)

Housing experts predict that multi-family rental properties and apartments will recover fastest from the current downturn, followed by housing in cities that didn’t overbuild.

The market is likely to hit bottom in the next few months, says Bernard Markstein, senior economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of Home Builders.

“Next year will see slow but steady improvement, as home builders are controlling their inventory,” Markstein says.

Apartments and other multi-family residences will snap back quickly once businesses start hiring again, predicts Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis.

Baby boomers looking for retirement homes and first-time home buyers also will lead the way out of the decline, predicts Bill Singer, a securities attorney and trader who is a member of Forbes.com’s panel of financial gurus.

Source: Forbes.com, Madalina Iacob (03/18/2009)

Home prices rose 1.7 percent in January, up for the first time in 10 months, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which only reports prices for conforming properties with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Many analysts were skeptical about the results because the report excludes expensive homes with subprime loans and jumbo mortgages.

The government did note that sales numbers in January were low and that could skew the results.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department is expected to report today that new home sales fell in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000 units from 309,000 units in January. This is the lowest level since 1963.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Kelly Evans and the Associated Press (03/25/2009)

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s week index reached 1159.4, an increase of 32.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 876.9 the previous week. On an unadjusted basis, the index rose 31.4 percent and was up 18 percent compared with the same week a year ago.

The refinance index increased 41.5 percent, while the purchase index rose 4.2 percent. Overall, the refinance share of mortgage activity hit 78.5 percent, up from 72.9 the previous week.

“Mortgage rates fell sharply to low levels not seen in six decades following the Federal Reserve’s announcement on the Treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities purchase programs. The drop offered a sizable refinance incentive for most homeowners sparking a pickup in refinance activity,” said Orawin Velz, Associate Vice President of Economic Forecasting.

Mortgage rates continued to decline:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.63 percent from 4.89 percent.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.48 percent from 4.52 percent.
• 1-year ARMs increased to 6.22 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (03/25/2009)

Housing consultancy Global Insight reports that nationwide, housing prices are now 3.8 percent undervalued, based on total market value. It says values fell at a faster pace in the third quarter after stabilizing earlier in the year.

According to Global Insight’s calculations, prices are now 6.5 percent below their 2007 peak. They fell at a 6.9 percent annual pace affecting 241 of the 330 metropolitan areas analyzed by Global Insight. That’s up from 150 metro areas affected in the second quarter.

Contraction is most severe in the Southeast and Southwest with only the Pacific Northwest remaining overvalued, Global Insight says.

Home prices fell more than 10 percent in the third quarter in nine central California communities. The Central Valley communities of Merced, Stockton, and Modesto have seen property values fall to less than half their 2005 value. Twenty-nine metro areas in California, Florida, and Nevada ­– at one time among the most overvalued – have seen price declines in excess of 30 percent. Similar steep price drops are occurring in Michigan, northeast Ohio, the southern metro areas from Charlotte to Atlanta, as well as in New England.

“Weak economic conditions and wary consumers continue to hold the housing market back. Although many areas are seeing home sales increase, it is largely due to foreclosure homes being snapped up at significantly discounted prices. As the inventory of these homes is removed from the market, prices will remain on a downward path,” predicts Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist and manager of Global Insight’s Regional Real Estate Service.

Source: Global Insight (12/03/2008)

Pilots and their planes now call more than 600 fly-in communities across the country home, says Dave Sclair, retired publisher of General Aviation News.

“It’s a very popular trend,” he says.

John Travolta keep his Boeing 707 parked at his estate in the air park Jumbolair near Ocala, Fla.

But celebrities aren’t the only people who choose this lifestyle. Lots of serious pilots want to be close to their planes for convenience and security, says Sclair.

In Santa Paula, Calif., developers are breaking ground for what they believe is a first – two-story condos with hangars for planes downstairs and living space for pilots and their families upstairs. The units will sell for about $800,000 each and buyers will actually own a piece of airport property.

Pilot Bill Lindsay, one of the people behind the project, says many of the condos are already sold and developers aren’t concerned about selling the rest. “I think it is enough of a supply-and-demand type of thing, enough of a niche, that we’ll be fine,” Lindsay says.

Source: The Associated Press, John Rogers (10/26/2008)

If a person has been steadily employed and paying income taxes their entire life, they should not lose their home following the circus of the last 8-9 years when gas prices quad-rupled, among other things.  I have a better solution:  Forgive all home mortgages.  A person with multiple homes would write-down their primary residence only.  One could not borrow against the home used in this exemption.  Investment properties are not affected.

There may be major pitfalls to be mindful of, but this does not by it’s nature socialize the people or the banks.  Instead, the interest is eliminated from the debt, and the debt is converted to public equity with no payments due to the treasury.

Bond investors related to the mortgage market would receive a tax-loss certificate with special provisions relating to the collapsed industry.

Every person would own their home free and clear, and henceforth could move forth buying, selling, or trading their homes for its genuine value.

By RICHARD HANNERS / Whitefish Pilot

Word that the Wall Street meltdown has led to layoffs at the Moonlight Basin ski resort had some locals concerned about the future of Whitefish Mountain Resort.

By mid-September, the ski resort south of Bozeman had spent $100 million on construction and lined up another $70 million in financing, thanks to its primary banking partner for the past year, Lehman Brothers.

But with the giant Wall Street financial firm declaring bankruptcy several weeks ago, Moonlight Basin’s future turned cloudy, and ski resort CEO Lee Poole announced Oct. 9 that 90 employees were temporarily laid off. Poole, however, vowed that the resort would open this season.

Since it opened in 2004, Moonlight Basin has been developing into a four-season resort, with a Jack Nicklaus-designed golf course, a village with hotels, restaurants and stores, and single-family residences.

A ski resort spokesman announced last December that Moonlight Basin was for sale, but the situation changed drastically as the nation’s mortgage problems spread into financial markets, and buyers for the resort’s mountainside homes grew scarce.

The situation is more drastic at Tamarack Resort, about 90 miles north of Boise, Idaho. Tamarack Resort has amassed $273 million in debt, and investment bank Credit Suisse has sued in federal bankruptcy court to take over the resort.

Tamarack Resort also opened in 2004. Lots were marketed at up to $450,000 apiece, and resort CEO and major stockholder Jean-Pierre Boespflug predicted the project would reach $1.5 billion ” including a marina on nearby Lake Cascade.

Boespflug also vows to open the resort this winter, but he’s looking for investors and buyers. Construction on the Village Plaza project has stalled and needs an additional $56 million, tennis stars Andre Agassi and Steffi Graf have pulled out of a luxury hotel project, and several banks have foreclosed on the resort’s conference center and employee housing.

The fact that Lehman Brothers CEO and chairman Richard Fuld Jr. is a partner in two large Whitefish projects ” Block 46 downtown and The Homestead At Whitefish out on Farm To Market Road ” had some locals wondering about the financial well-being of other wealthy investors with ties here.

In particular, they were concerned about Bill Foley, who in April 2007 held 61.8 percent of Whitefish Mountain Resort stock, and Michael Goguen, who held 17.9 percent.

” Whitefish Mountain Resort is in a very sound financial position right now,” spokesman Donnie Clapp said. ” We’re very fortunate to have received a significant infusion of cash when Mr. Foley and others became stockholders, enabling us to begin to pay down our debt and complete several needed infrastructure improvements last summer without having to borrow further.”

Two years ago, the resort raised about $20 million through stock sold to some of its 35 stockholders. That money was used to build the new Base Lodge, upgrade Chair 1 and Chair 2, install additional snowmaking infrastructure and pay down some debt.

” We’re in the best financial shape since I’ve joined the board in 1995,” Whitefish mayor and resort stockholder Mike Jenson said.

Last year was one of the first years in a long time that the resort’s operations was ” in the black,” Jenson said, noting that real estate sales often propped up operations in the past. And compared to the debt load at Moonlight Basin and Tamarack Resort, ” Big Mountain debt never reached $10 million,” he said.

Clapp said that thanks to streamlining operations, record-breaking snowfall last season and a favorable Canadian exchange rate, ” we had one of our most financially successful winter seasons to date in 2007-2008, putting us in a very favorable position as this fiscal year closes.”

Whitefish Mountain Resort broke its season-pass sales record for the second year in a row, he said, and advance lodging-reservations are looking good compared to last year and the rest of the industry.

” Our stated goal of turning ourselves into a ski resort that is self-sustaining ” one that does not have to resort to real estate development or excessive borrowing to survive ” looks to be within reach, and we couldn’t be more excited about it,” Clapp said. ” With the addition of several attractions next summer, including zip lines and an alpine sled, we hope to improve year-round revenue enough that we can begin to move toward a debt-free Whitefish Mountain Resort.”

State ski areas post record numbers

A superior snow year across Montana is the reason behind record-high skier numbers at the state’s 15 ski areas last season, the University of Montana’s Institute of Tourism and Recreation Research reports.

About 1.4 million skier-visits were recorded in 2007-2008, an increase of 14.5 percent over the previous season.

Seven ski areas reported their best seasons ever ” Blacktail, Bridger, Discovery, Great Divide, Lookout Pass, Maverick, Moonlight Basin and Turner Mountain.

Whitefish Mountain Resort’s biggest year was 2005-2006, when the ski area recorded 304,366 skier-visits. Last year, the Big Mountain saw 296,708 skier-visits.

Big Sky Resort has posted the highest skier-visit numbers over the past 10 years. Its biggest year was also 2005-2006, with 323,000 skier-visits. Last year, the ski area south of Bozeman saw 309,170 skier-visits.

The number of skier-visits at Blacktail Mountain Ski Area, in Lakeside, has more than doubled from its opening season in 1998-1999, when it recorded 19,061 skier-visits. Last year, the ski area saw 41,657 skier-visits.

Recent drought years were tough on Turner Mountain Ski Resort, in Libby. In 2004-2005, the ski area saw 309 skier-visits. Last season, the number was 5,872.

The Big Mountain Commercial Association looking for members

By RICHARD HANNERS / Whitefish PilotNow in its 10th year, Big Mountain Commercial Association’s SNOW Bus program continues to provide much-needed public transportation between Whitefish and the ski resort on the mountain.

BMCA executive director Rick Cunningham said the bus service is heavily used and greatly appreciated by skiers and snowboarders as well as Whitefish Mountain Resort and village employees. With three buses running from early morning to late in the evening, the SNOW Bus program significantly reduces traffic on Big Mountain Road.

“Ridership hit 54,000 last season,” he said.

The buses are owned, maintained and operated by Rocky Mountain Transportation. BMCA recently signed a $200,000-plus contract for the upcoming season.

“That includes $20,000 more for higher fuel costs,” Cunningham said, “although there’s a clause that takes into account changing fuel costs.”

BMCA also provides about $40,000 for snow-removal and sanding on Big Mountain Road. The ski resort provides the rest of the money for winter road maintenance.

Big Mountain Road is a state highway, and Montana Department of Transportation provides salt and gravel and pays for fixing potholes, but resort officials realized long ago that in order to keep the road in a safe condition bright and early every day during the ski season, it was better to take on that responsibility itself.

“Big Mountain Road is ranked in the top-five heaviest-used state highways during the ski season,” Cunningham said.

Jennifer Fisher works at Kandahar Lodge and sits on the BMCA board. She said the bus service is a boon for guests at lodges in the village.

“Many of them come by plane or train and don’t have a car,” she said. “The SNOW Bus gives them a way to travel to and from Whitefish.”

Dale Duff, whose family has owned and operated Rocky Mountain Transportation for two generations, remembers transportation in the ski resort’s early days.

“We’ve had buses running up to Big Mountain since 1954,” Duff said. “It was organized by Norm Kurtz.”

Duff said Winter Sports Inc. paid for the buses back then, but he recalled Kurtz knocking on doors rounding up support from Whitefish merchants. The Lions clubs in Columbia Falls and Kalispell also organized bus service to the ski resort.

“Back then, buses ran only on Saturdays,” Duff said. “Sometimes it cost 50 cents or a token. Toward the end, it cost $1 each way.”

About 10 years ago, however, Winter Sports Inc. CEO Michael Collins and operations manager Michelle Reese started talking about getting a full-time bus service going, and they wanted it to be free to riders, Duff said.

“They got the Big Mountain Commercial Association started, and WSI made a three-year commitment with Rocky Mountain Transportation to run the SNOW Bus program,” Duff said.

BMCA, a nonprofit organization, raises money through membership dues and two big fundraisers — the Winefest at The Lodge At Whitefish Lake on Feb. 19 and the Brewfest in Big Mountain Village in August.

All businesses in the village are members, and other members are found across the Flathead. The $400 membership fee allows businesses to purchase discounted season passes for its employees right up to Nov. 15.

“Membership is down by more than 30, but it’s not too late to join,” Cunningham said.

Despite the fact that the $250 billion the government plans to invest in banks is intended to help them make new loans, J.P. Morgan Chase, BB&T, and Zions Bancorporation are among the financial institutions hoping to use the money to acquire other banks.

While some experts are worried such deals could further the trend of creating banks “too big to fail,” others believe they could prevent the failure of numerous small banks and boost the economy.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson acknowledged that the money could be used to acquire smaller, weaker banks. He stated, “There will be some situations where it’s best for the economy and for the banking system for there to be a consolidation.”

Source: Washington Post, Peter Whoriskey and Zachary Goldfarb (10/22/08).